Car makers planning a record number of new models

A hyper-competitive marketplace, brimming with new choices in both existing and emerging segments - cars and crossover utility vehicles especially - is great news for buyers

By:JEREMY CATO
It will be a buyer's market from now until at least 2012, a new report from the auto analysts at brokerage house Merrill Lynch suggests.
The story starts in the numbers. Or in one number: 42. That's the average count of all-new models expected to be launched each and every year over the next four years - 17 per cent more than the average launched each year between 1987 and 2008.

This is great news for buyers.
A hyper-competitive marketplace, brimming with new choices in both existing and emerging segments - cars and crossover utility vehicles especially - means auto makers and their dealers will be chasing customers more aggressively than ever.

And they will be doing so with sharp new fuel-efficient, technology-laden vehicles reflecting the new reality of high fuel prices in particular.

"Over the next four years, the industry will replace 67 per cent of its [sales] volume, with the disparity among the major manufacturers reaching the lowest level ever," says the latest Car Wars study from Merrill Lynch.

That should mean smaller market shifts among the manufacturers and even more competition than we've seen in recent years. General Motors's market share, in fact, should increase slightly and Ford's losses will be reduced.

Chrysler, though, looks to be in play. Its private owner, Cerberus Capital Management, is likely to break up and sell off the various parts of Chrysler that have value. What remains, primarily the car business, would be phased out entirely.

"It is possible that Jeep will be sold to a strategic international auto maker, possibly Tata," says Merrill Lynch. "The relationship with Nissan-Renault may be a sign of where the pickup business may land, and minivans would also be a natural tag along.
"The big question would be what to do with the car business? We would assume it might be wound down.
"Whatever direction the rationalization of Chrysler takes, as long as it is relatively orderly, it should be a positive for all other auto makers. It should be especially positive for GM and Ford as they pick up the majority of the share that Chrysler relinquishes."
Nissan will be most aggressive with launching new models - 80 per cent of what Nissan sells today will be replaced with something new by 2012.
The South Korean auto makers, Hyundai and its sister company Kia, will renew 74 per cent of their lineups, followed by Honda (72 per cent), Toyota (71 per cent), GM and the various European manufacturers combined (70 per cent), Ford (66 per cent), and Chrysler (51 per cent). The industry average renewal rate comes in at 67 per cent.
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Comments:
Will this be indeed a buyer's market for the new hybrid and crossover vehicles?
How are we going to phase out our new and old gas fueled only vehicles? What's the phase out timetable?
Well, this remains to be seen...